Quebec is the surprise drag on national EV adoption rate, but lower prices, incoming Chinese vehicles and rebates point to a late-year surge, says Scott Sharabura

Canada’s EV market started the year with many tailwinds. In the first quarter, we saw the revival of federal EV incentives, the relaxation of tariffs on Chinese EVs and a pronounced spike in the price of gas.

Everything was lined up for a pop in EV sales after a 35 per cent decline in 2025.

And yet — sales haven’t recovered quite as much as hoped.

To be clear, the news is broadly good. EV sales are up more than 30 per cent from 2025 and have consistently been achieving 10 per cent market share.

Compared to the U.S., where EV sales have dropped 30 per cent since the federal incentive ended in October 2025, Canada shines.

But we’re still not back to 2024 levels, when market share hit 14 per cent. It’s a good result, but not great.

What’s going on? A few things.

Some of this is seasonal: EV sales skew toward the year’s final months.

Many buyers are also waiting to see the new Chinese models.

Supply chains are playing a role again, too: order a Tesla today and delivery is January.

Quebec’s dragging sales

But dig into the numbers and a pattern emerges: most provinces are already back to 2024 levels, or better.

B.C. is resting at 20 per cent market share. Ontario set a quarterly record for ZEV sales in Q2 with 16,913, though market share was 7.4 per cent. And my home province of Alberta has not only recovered from the dip — Q2 EV sales are up 37 per cent from 2024, with a 4.7 per cent market share.

The laggard? Quebec, where EVs sold like hotcakes in 2024. Then, EV buyers could get a $7,000 provincial incentive on top of the federal credit. That provided $12,000 in incentives — making an EV cheaper than most ICE equivalents.

When that incentive was on the verge of scaling down, Quebecers went crazy for EVs, hitting 42 per cent market share in the fourth quarter of 2024. Today it is 18 per cent.

And because Quebec was 60 per cent of all EVs sold in 2024, it strongly sways the national numbers.

What does this mean? The tepid recovery is mostly confined to Quebec — and the EV market elsewhere in Canada is setting records.

Canada is now an affordable EV market

Another big shift we have seen in 2026: Canada is now an affordable EV market.

JD Power reported in June that the average transaction price for an EV is $49,500, down 15 per cent from 2025. This is a huge win for Canadian car buyers.

Importantly there is now little difference in transaction price between EVs and ICE vehicles.

And this is before any federal or provincial incentives.

What’s behind this shift?

• The design of the EVAP incentive. Its $50,000 transaction price cap has piqued interest in lower-cost models and pushed OEMs to price under it.
• The importation of vehicles from China. While Chinese OEMs themselves are not yet in the market, Tesla’s aggressive pricing on the Model 3 has revived sales and set a bar that competitors have been compelled to meet.
• The availability of smaller, more affordable EV models from Toyota, Kia, Hyundai, Chevrolet and others. Last year there was only one model available under $40,000 (the Fiat 500e). Today, there are at least twelve, even before the entry of Chinese OEMs.

This shift toward affordable models is in sharp contrast to the U.S. The average Canadian EV is now a whopping 36 per cent cheaper than the average EV in the U.S., which sells for nearly $55,000 US (or $78,000 Canadian) according to Kelley Blue Book. That’s largely vehicle mix: the U.S. skews toward pricier Tesla, Rivian and Cadillac models.

This has led to some quirky sales results. For instance, in Q3, Chevrolet sold more Bolt and Equinox EVs in Canada than they did in the U.S.

Not more per capita — just more, period.

The same is true for the Nissan Leaf. These models are struggling in the U.S. but have found fanbases in Canada.

What about Q4?

Look for a sharper recovery. Historically, Q4 is always the strongest quarter for EV sales in Canada, as showrooms will be displaying their 2027 models.

The “temporary” gas price spike is on its seventh month, which will leave more car buyers thinking about their long-term savings from driving electric.

The planned step-down of the EVAP incentive — ticking down to $4,000 in 2027 — will also drive some deadline-buying in December.

And of course: Q4 should see the first arrival of Chinese OEMs in Canadian showrooms. Omoda and Jaecoo, which have proven highly popular in Australia and the UK, have already announced their anticipated arrival in late 2026.

Arriving a bit late to affect 2026, these brands will still generate buzz and momentum heading into 2027.