The overall decline reflects a drop in battery electric vehicle registrations nationally to 8.2 per cent, compared to 9 per cent in Q4, while plug-in hybrid registrations held steady at 3 per cent

Zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) registrations in Canada in the first quarter of 2024 fell to 11.3 per cent, down from 12 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to data released today by Statistics Canada.

Last year, ZEV registrations peaked at 12.3 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. In Q1 of 2023, by comparison, they were just 8.6 per cent.

Statistics Canada data shows the decline in the latest quarter was driven entirely by a reduction in battery electric vehicle (BEV) registrations, which fell to 8.2 per cent from 9 per cent in Q4. Plug-in hybrid (PHEV) registrations held steady at 3 per cent.

However, the trend varied among the countries’ three largest automotive markets. ZEV registrations are holding steady in Quebec while falling substantially in Ontario and British Columbia.

(Note: StatsCan classifies BEVs and PHEVs as “zero-emission vehicles.” The grouping does not reflect Electric Autonomy’s view, which considers only non-combustion engine vehicles to be zero-emission. However, where statistics below refer to ZEVs, we have adhered to StatsCan’s definition for consistency.)

Quebec surges, Ontario slumps

Among the provinces, Quebec now holds the outright lead in ZEV market share. In Q1, ZEV registrations there were 22.1 per cent, up from 21.4 per cent in Q4. In B.C. (plus the territories), meanwhile, which previously tied with Quebec in Q4, ZEV registrations slipped to 19.8 per cent.

Quebec is one of two provinces seeing an absolute increase in BEV registrations in Q1, rising to 16,590 from 16,513 in Q4. That is no small feat. The total number of BEVs registered nationally in Q1 fell to 34,105 from 38,528 in Q4.

B.C.’s 1.6 per cent decline in ZEV registrations was closely matched by Ontario, which saw overall ZEV registrations fall 1.5 percent, to 6.7 per cent from 8.2 per cent in Q4.

However, because Ontario’s overall market is much larger, the decline in ZEV registrations there accounts for 69.5 per cent of the decline nationally.

Quebec also lead the provinces by a wide margin in terms of total ZEV registrations, with 22,231 in Q1. Ontario was second at 10,910, with B.C. a close third at 9,839.

As with previous StatsCan reports, there is no breakout data available for Alberta, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador (due to contractual restrictions). However the registration numbers for those provinces appear in the national total.

Longer-term trend uncertain

Given the recent worldwide focus on an apparent slowdown in electric vehicles sales, it’s worth noting that Canada’s Q1 decline in BEV registrations was more modest than that in the U.S. where BEV sales fell more than a full percentage point, to 7 per cent from 8.1 per cent in the first quarter.

This week, also, BloombergNEF revised down its global forecast for electric vehicle sales in the coming year with the publication of its annual Electric Vehicle Outlook. However, it also noted that the outlook varies greatly between different markets.

Whether Canada’s Q1 numbers indicate that our market will follow the declining trend remains to be seen.

One indicator that this may not be the case is the fact that more than 19,000 iZEV rebate claims were filed in April 2024 alone. This compares to slightly more than 41,000 claims for the entire first quarter.

Should that trend continue in May and June, expect a big ZEV rebound when StatsCan’s Q2 data comes out.