Pembina Institute finds that while the technology to electrify GTHA trucks is ready, what’s missing is strong policy

Pembina Institute says one-third of trucks in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) could be electrified now, with that number expected to rise significantly over the next decade.

Electrifying Fleet Trucks: A Case Study Estimating Potential in the GTHA says electric trucks are not a technology of the future but a viable, cost-effective solution today.

“Real-world travel data from Canadian trucks, collected over summer and winter months, shows that electrification is possible today,” says Chandan Bhardwaj, senior analyst for transportation at Pembina Institute, in a press note.

“In fact, with a staggered approach, the GTHA — home to over half the province’s vehicle stock — could reach 50 per cent sales for lighter trucks by 2030, helping offset lower adoption rates for heavier trucks.”

By 2034, more than half of light-duty trucks (Class 3 and 4) could be electrified, alongside 40 per cent of medium-duty trucks (Class 5 and 6), and over one-third of heavy-duty trucks (Class 7 and 8).

Beyond 2035, almost all light- and medium-duty trucks and up to 70 per cent of heavy-duty trucks could be powered by electricity.

The technological edge

As battery technology and public charging infrastructure continues to improve, Ontario stands to gain several economic and environmental benefits, notes the Pembina report.

Data cited by Pembina shows most battery-electric truck models on the market already offer enough range to meet daily driving needs, even when considering range drops in cold weather.  

Additionally, about 40 per cent of trucks in the GTHA can charge overnight at their home base, making electrification both practical and accessible for many operators.

With this businesses could reduce fuel and maintenance expenses by up to 40 per cent, improving long-term financial performance.

At the same time, decreasing reliance on imported fossil fuels would strengthen Ontario’s energy security and keep more energy spending in the province.

The adoption of more electric trucks would also cut emissions and provide health benefits. (Traffic-related air pollution in the GTHA leads to about 700 premature deaths and 2,800 hospitalizations each year, costing the health care system approximately $4.6 billion.)

Policy lagging

Despite the technical readiness and clear economic benefits, electric truck adoption remains low in Ontario. According to the Pembina report, the key barrier is the lack of supportive policies.

In response, the report lays out a series of recommendations aimed at speeding up the transition.

One key area of focus is support for small- and medium-sized businesses with a call for Ontario to provide financial assistance to help these enterprises purchase electric trucks and install private charging infrastructure.

“This will help Ontario-based fleets stay competitive by reducing long-term fuel and maintenance costs, while also shielding them from the volatility of fuel prices,” the report states.

The Ontario Energy Board could allow utilities to offer lower rates to public charging station operators. This would make charging more affordable and enable broader deployment, while also allowing chargers to contribute to the grid and add flexibility for utilities.

The report also highlights the critical role municipalities can play. Local governments should identify priority zones for deployment and streamline permitting processes for truck-ready public chargers. In addition to accelerating adoption, this investment would support local job growth.

Finally, the report calls on fleet owners and charging network operators to coordinate early with utilities to plan for grid upgrades and manage energy demand efficiently.

“Our analysis shows that Ontario has a clear path to accelerating the transition to zero-emission trucks,” says Adam Thorn, director of transportation at Pembina Institute.

“With the right policies in place, businesses can reap the benefits of lower costs while the province strengthens its manufacturing sector and energy security.”