Will the fallout stateside stall momentum in Canada to decarbonize heavy-duty vehicles? Experts weigh in

The California Air Resources Board (CARB) is pulling back on rules to compel large companies to electrify their fleets and ban sales of diesel trucks.

The Advanced Clean Fleets (ACF) rule put forward by CARB in 2023 would have ended sales of new fossil fuel trucks by 2036. It also required fleet operators in the state to ensure all their road delivery vehicles are zero-emission by 2045.

But in mid-January the State of California withdrew its application to the Environmental Protection Agency requesting permission to enforce ACF. The decision was made out of concern that the Trump administration would be unlikely to approve the application.

It’s a U-turn that may influence policy decisions in Canada, say experts.

“California has always been the leader in this space,” says Sarah McBain, manager of the transportation program at the Pembina Institute, a clean energy think tank, in an interview with Electric Autonomy.

“For almost any regulation concerning electric vehicles, provincially or federally, we’ve looked to California. What happens there shapes our policies here.”

ACF electrification requirements still apply to state and local government fleets. However, out-of-state trucks transporting goods in California do not have to comply.

Going forward the CARB board may revise the ACF or simply implement parts of the rule that likely do not require Environmental Protection Agency approval, according to Ray Minjares, managing director, heavy-duty vehicles, at the U.S.-based International Council on Clean Transportation.

What does this mean for Canada?

In Canada, progress on decarbonizing medium- and heavy-duty fleets remains slow and inconsistent.

Daniel Breton, president and CEO of Electric Mobility Canada, says “where Canada is with [electrifying] trucks is where we were 12, 15 years ago with cars.”

Two years ago, as part of its CleanBC Roadmap to 2030 commitments, British Columbia held consultations on a range of proposed policies for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs), including zero-emission sales targets that aligned with California and other leading jurisdictions.

Consultations ended in 2023 and no further actions taken, observes McBain. She is not optimistic that the province will announce regulations requiring fleet owners to replace fossil fuel rigs with zero-emission versions any time soon.

Last November, Quebec’s minister for Environment and the Fight against Climate Change tabled Bill 81, which includes amendments introducing a credit system to ramp up automakers’ sales of emission-free heavy-duty trucks. The Quebec National Assembly is currently studying the Bill, but there are no further updates.

No other provinces are contemplating legislation around incentivizing medium- and heavy-duty EV adoption.

Adding to concerns about a lack of progress are the recent announcements at both federal and provincial levels to either reduce or pause rebates for passenger EVs, which had been widely seen as key to boosting uptake.

“I worry about ending incentive programs for consumers,” says McBain, noting that having rebates in place instills confidence among OEMs that there will be a motivated customer base for their products.

Automakers are more likely to object to government-imposed sales targets when incentives are removed, she adds.

Leading instead of following

Breton, however, does not see Canada as entirely beholden to California’s political machinations as it looks to map out its adoption strategies.

“Look at the electric vehicle targets [for passenger cars] in B.C. and Quebec,” he says. “Provincial targets are more ambitious than California’s. Plus the adoption levels in B.C. and Québec are higher than in California.”

Neither province, says Breton, will necessarily be influenced by CARB’s decision.

According to McBain, the question now is: will Canada interpret the regulatory pause in California as a setback on both sides of the border or could Canada seize this opportunity to assume leadership in clean energy commercial freight?

But predictions are fraught with uncertainty at the moment.

“Right now,” says McBain, “with the threat of [U.S.] tariffs, the question on everyone’s mind is, what’s going to happen to Canada’s vehicle manufacturing sector in general?”