The latest data also shows national ZEV adoption in Canada slightly exceeded S&P’s earlier prediction for 2024

Zero-emission vehicle adoption finished on a high last year with S&P Global Mobility reporting registrations of new battery-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles reaching 18.9 per cent in Q4 2024.

“ZEVs accounted for approximately one out of every five vehicles sold in Canada during Q4,” reads the S&P report. “In Quebec, the ZEV penetration rate soared to 42.0 per cent, with the province now accounting for 60.0 per cent of ZEV registrations nationwide.”

In November 2024, S&P predicted Canada would reach an overall 15.2 per cent ZEV adoption rate for the year.

That estimate was slightly exceeded. Now that the numbers are in, the overall adoption rate for 2024 in Canada is 15.4 per cent.

(Note: S&P Global Mobility, like Statistics Canada, classifies BEVs and PHEVs as “zero-emission vehicles.” The grouping does not reflect Electric Autonomy’s view, which considers only non-combustion engine vehicles to be zero-emission. However, where statistics in this report refer to ZEVs, we have adhered to the S&P Global Mobility definition for consistency.)

Looking only at battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), Canada’s adoption rate hit 14.3 per cent in Q4 2024 versus 12.2 per cent in Q3.

For plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), the Q4 2024 adoption rate is 4.6 per cent, up from 4.3 per cent in Q3 2024.

Overall, states the report, ZEV volume in Canada increased by 44.2 per cent, while total light-duty vehicle sales volume increased by just 9.5 per cent.

Quebec continues to lead

As with the other data releases throughout 2024, Quebec once again is the national adoption leader with 42.0 per cent of new registrations in Q4 2024 being ZEVs.

British Columbia follows at 22.5 per cent in the same quarter. Meanwhile, Ontario just missed double digits with 9.6 per cent new ZEV registrations in Q4.

At a more local level, some of the highest adopting municipal areas for ZEVs are Calgary; Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island; Granby, Quebec; Halifax; Hamilton, Ontario; Moncton, New Brunswick; Saskatoon; St. John’s; Victoria; and Winnipeg.

Mixed MHDV adoption

Medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs) are seeing mixed results in zero-emission adoption rates.

Class 2 MHDVs saw a 31.4 per cent year-over-year dip in new registrations, while Class 3 MHDVs saw a 264.3 per cent leap going from 140 to 509 vehicles between 2023 and 2024.

Meanwhile, Class 4 zero-emission MHDV registrations rose 87.5 per cent between 2023 and 2024, with 15 units sold in 2024 as opposed to eight in 2023.

There were even 12 zero-emission Class 5s that came to Canada — up from none in 2023.

Class 6 and Class 7 new zero-emission truck registrations saw a 75.8 and 87.9 per cent drop, respectively.

Finally, new registrations of Class 8 medium- and heavy-duty ZEVs increased by 178.6 per cent, going from 77 units in 2023 to 214 in 2024.

Disruption ahead

While 2024 finished on a high note, S&P cautions several times throughout its report that the results for Q1 2025 will not be as rosy.

The data collector is forecasting ZEV adoption rates will fall to 13.3 per cent for the first quarter of the year. It points to the discontinuation of provincial and federal purchase rebates, as well as market instability due to threatened tariff wars foreshadowed by the U.S, government.

“As a result of these changes, BEV volumes plummeted by an alarming 48.3 per cent nationally in January 2025 compared to December 2024. This downturn has severely impacted major players in the industry, with Tesla seeing a decline of more than 72 per cent and Chevrolet EVs down by more than 65 per cent,” reads the report.

S&P Global Mobility data scientists further predict that Quebec will see the greatest drop in new ZEV registrations; a 65 per cent drop in ZEV volume is already being reported thus far in 2025.