City-level data suggests previous studies overestimated charging infrastructure and electricity needed for 35 per cent adoption of electric medium- and heavy-duty vehicles

A study by the Pembina Institute released last month suggests that Canada’s electricity grid can easily support an increase in electric medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs). 

The report, titled Planning to Charge, claims the findings of previous studies — including one by NRCan just last year — have significantly overestimated energy demand and charging infrastructure needs. 

Vehicle usage data was collected from thousands of trucks in Toronto, Mississauga, Brampton, Markham and Hamilton. The report suggests that, with planning, about $1 billion could be saved in charging infrastructure by 2030 compared to earlier projections.

Incremental rise in demand

The federal government has set targets in its 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan for all-electric MHDVs, with the aim of reaching 35 per cent of total sales by 2030. 

Chandan Bhardwaj, a senior analyst for transportation who wrote the Pembina report, told Electric Autonomy that, even if Toronto reaches 35 per cent electric truck share, “the additional demand will be … less than 1.5 per cent of the total electricity demand in Toronto right now. So even in five years from now, the incremental demand would be about 1 per cent, which is pretty manageable. The daily fluctuations in electricity demand in Toronto are about 25 per cent, so they are fully capable of handling this incremental demand.”

Focus on smaller trucks first

The report suggests focussing on medium-size vehicles first instead of larger Class 8 trucks to make up the 35 per cent, as they are more plentiful in market, use less power to charge and don’t require expensive charging infrastructure. Sharing chargers among businesses and municipalities is another strategy, which could cut infrastructure costs. Charging in off-peak hours will reduce fleet energy costs and give the grid relief. 

One finding from the report was that, on average, 10 per cent of postal code areas accounted for more than 50 per cent of truck traffic in each test city. “So rather than deploy chargers uniformly everywhere, especially in the short term,” says Bhardwaj, “they should prioritize high-use zones, high-freight sectors.” 

Census-block data

Bhardwaj says previous studies have focussed on national and provincial averages and uniform electric MHDV adoption across all weight classes. They also assume 100 per cent use of public charging facilities.

“We had been hearing from utilities and municipalities that they are looking for local estimates of what the electric truck in-use electricity demand will be,” says Bhardwaj. “The NRCan study … gives a national picture, that is useful to give a macro view. But the city planners need more local, actionable insight, and so this study goes really deep to the census block level.

“Simple things like staggering the target, simple things like prioritizing some zones, simple things like shared charging, these can lead to about 75 per cent of charger cost [savings]. This was a key finding for us.”